Last in New Businesses, 13th in New Homes: Our Answer to the Prosperity Report

Change Buffalo PAC Committee Report | October 19, 2026

The Situation

The Buffalo Niagara Partnership has released its 2026 Buffalo Niagara Prosperity Report, which compares the region with 12 peer and aspirational metros, from Pittsburgh and Cleveland to Nashville and Salt Lake City. It finds real strengths. Buffalo Niagara ranks first of 13 in degree completions per capita, first in semiconductor job growth (+141 percent since 2020) and has the shortest average commute in the group.

It also finds the gaps this PAC was founded to close. According to the report:

• Business establishments: down 1.6 percent since 2020. Buffalo Niagara is the only one of the 13 regions to decline.
• New businesses: 13th of 13 in business applications, with 9.2 per 1,000 residents, less than half the rate of leader Salt Lake City.
• New homes: 13th of 13 in housing permits, with 2.7 units permitted per 1,000 existing homes in 2025, while home values rose 32 percent.
• Wages: average wages fell 2.4 percent from 2020 to 2025, while U.S. wages grew 2.7 percent.

The latest jobs numbers point the same way. The region added about 900 jobs in September, but it is still down about 7,500 jobs from before the pandemic, while the nation regained all of its lost jobs by February 2022 (The Buffalo News, citing the state Labor Department). Over the 12 months ending in September, private-sector jobs in Western New York fell by 600, to 538,700 (NYS Department of Labor).

A live example: 303 Lafayette Avenue. A proposed apartment building at 303 Lafayette Avenue was first planned in February 2025 at four stories and 28 units. After neighborhood pushback it was cut to three stories and 20 units. The developer now says that version is not economically feasible and is back with a four-story, 27-unit design. That requires relief on residential density and building height, and the Zoning Board of Appeals reviews it on October 21 (Buffalo Rising). Twenty months after the first proposal, the project is still seeking approvals. Delays like this help explain why the region ranks 13th of 13 in new homes.

Proof that investment will come. Two recent announcements show what the region can win:

• Empire AI at UB. The Empire AI Research Computing Center, a 46,000-square-foot shared research facility on UB’s North Campus with up to 15 megawatts of computing power, carries an estimated $74.5 million construction budget. Construction is expected to start in November or December 2026, and Gilbane is seeking local subcontractors (Buffalo Rising).
• Solstice Advanced Materials. Solstice will invest $49 million to expand its Peabody Street research and development facility into its premier global R&D hub. The project will add 12 jobs to an existing Buffalo workforce of 180, supported by up to $1.4 million in Excelsior Jobs Tax Credits (Governor’s Office).

What It Means for the Change Buffalo Agenda

The diagnosis matches our agenda. Strong universities and growing advanced industries are not translating into new firms, new homes or higher wages. A region that is last in business formation and last in home building cannot expect rising incomes or a growing population. The report is a shared baseline, and the Partnership says a regional growth strategy comes next. Our answer is four initiatives that target the specific gaps it measures:

• Build Buffalo Homes targets the 13th-place housing rank. It would legalize more homes by right and pre-approve standard designs so projects like 303 Lafayette do not need case-by-case relief to pencil out.
• The Permit Clock targets delay. Firm, published review deadlines and a public scorecard would make the cost of waiting visible and shorter.
• Lots to Neighbors puts city-owned vacant land into the hands of residents and small builders, the people most likely to start the next small business or build the next infill home.
• One Region, One IDA targets the business-formation and wage gaps. One professional, accountable development agency could compete for more projects like Empire AI and Solstice, without subsidizing moves from one town to the next.

What 303 Lafayette shows. We take no position on the specific variances before the Zoning Board. The PAC’s point is about the system. When the economics of a modest apartment building depend on a series of discretionary approvals, every project carries risk and delay, and many never get proposed at all. Clear, predictable rules serve neighbors and builders better than project-by-project negotiation.

What Empire AI and Solstice show. Buffalo can win advanced research investment. The task now is to make sure the region also builds the homes, the small firms and the local supply chains that let those investments raise wages here.

What Members Can Do

1. Read the report at thepartnership.org/prosperity and share the four numbers that matter most: −1.6 percent establishments, 13th in business applications, 13th in housing permits and −2.4 percent wages.
2. Follow 303 Lafayette at the Zoning Board of Appeals on Wednesday, October 21 at 2:00 p.m., OSP Conference Room 912, City Hall, 65 Niagara Square. Check the agenda on the City meeting portal. If you speak, ask the City to make housing like this possible by right, under clear standards.
3. Local contractors: review the Empire AI subcontracting opportunity through Buffalo Rising’s notice, which lists the trades sought and MWBE and SDVOB participation goals.
4. Plug into the regional strategy. The Partnership invites employers and partners to take part through its Prosperity Initiative page. Tell them that housing supply, permitting speed and one regional development agency belong on the priority list.
5. Join our Neighborhood Captains or a policy working group through our Get Involved page, or contact us.